Skip to content

Challenges

What still has to be solved

The same blockers affect many futures. These are the technical, economic, human, operational, regulatory, and political problems that still decide what can become real.

Artemis hardware at sunrise, connecting present-day crew systems with the Moon roadmap.
Source: NASA Image and Video Library

Filter and impact

Find the blocker behind a future.

Filter by challenge category or pathway, then inspect which capabilities and outcomes each blocker constrains.

Showing14

blockers

economic2 pathways

High-cadence affordable transportation

Space futures stay small when every kilogram is rare, slow, and expensive.

Progress would look like

Multiple providers repeatedly fly useful payloads with shorter turnaround, transparent reliability, and lower mission cost.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Routine civilian orbital travelA permanently staffed lunar outpost
technical1 pathway

Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer

Many Moon and Mars architectures depend on moving very cold propellant between vehicles after launch.

Progress would look like

A mission-relevant in-space transfer stores and moves cryogenic propellant reliably enough to change a real architecture.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Orbital propellant depotsA lunar fuel and logistics network
technical2 pathways

Closed-loop life support

Crews away from Earth need air, water, food, waste handling, spares, and repair without constant emergency resupply.

Progress would look like

A long-duration habitat demonstrates high-closure air and water systems with maintainable repair paths.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A permanently staffed lunar outpostA human landing on Mars
human2 pathways

Deep-space radiation protection

Beyond low Earth orbit, crews lose much of Earth's magnetic shielding.

Progress would look like

Mission architectures demonstrate practical storm shelters, exposure monitoring, shielding, and medical response for deep-space crews.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A civilian visit to the MoonA human landing on Mars
technical1 pathway

Heavy Mars landing

Mars is hard to land on because the atmosphere is thick enough to heat a vehicle and thin enough to provide limited braking.

Progress would look like

A Mars entry, descent, and landing system places human-scale cargo on the surface intact.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A human landing on MarsA recurring Mars base
technical3 pathways

Reliable off-world power

Habitats, communications, mining, oxygen production, and thermal systems all become fragile without abundant power.

Progress would look like

A surface system runs through difficult environmental cycles while supporting real mission loads.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A permanently staffed lunar outpostLunar resource extraction
operational3 pathways

Autonomous construction and maintenance

Large space systems cannot depend on astronauts hand-fixing every problem.

Progress would look like

A robotic system builds, inspects, repairs, or upgrades a mission-critical asset with limited crew intervention.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Orbital shipyardsA permanently staffed lunar outpost
technical3 pathways

Local resource extraction at useful scale

Finding a material is not the same as turning it into oxygen, water, fuel, metal, or construction feedstock.

Progress would look like

A surface demonstration produces and uses a meaningful quantity of material in an actual mission loop.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Lunar resource extractionA lunar fuel and logistics network
human2 pathways

Long-duration human health

The body changes in microgravity and deep space, and help is not nearby on long missions.

Progress would look like

Crews complete longer missions with validated countermeasures and realistic emergency care.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A human landing on MarsA recurring Mars base
operational3 pathways

Rescue and medical autonomy

A credible destination needs plans for illness, injury, vehicle failure, fire, leaks, and evacuation.

Progress would look like

A destination demonstrates realistic abort, evacuation, medical, and contingency paths.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Routine civilian orbital travelA civilian visit to the Moon
technical1 pathway

Thermal management for large orbital systems

Big power and compute systems must reject heat in vacuum, where cooling is much harder than on Earth.

Progress would look like

A large orbital platform demonstrates heat rejection at the scale required for power or compute service.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

Orbital computing infrastructureUtility-scale space solar power
economic6 pathways

Sustainable economic demand

Infrastructure does not last because it is inspiring; it lasts when someone pays for useful service.

Progress would look like

Multiple non-government customers buy repeat services that cover operations, maintenance, and growth.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A week-long stay in a commercial orbital stationOrbital computing infrastructure
regulatory6 pathways

Governance and liability

Space activity crosses national responsibility, property, safety, debris, rescue, radio spectrum, and liability rules.

Progress would look like

Clear interoperable rules support rescue, docking, traffic coordination, resource use, and accountability.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A lunar fuel and logistics networkA standing planetary-defense capability
operational1 pathway

Early detection and characterization

Planetary defense starts with seeing objects early enough to act and knowing what kind of object they are.

Progress would look like

Survey systems and follow-up networks detect more hazardous objects earlier and characterize them quickly.

Evidence boundary

The current best evidence is a mix of station operations, robotic missions, technology demos, and program commitments rather than one finished system.

A standing planetary-defense capability

Dependency impact

Which futures change when a blocker falls?

The relationships below show which futures rely on each missing capability, without turning the result into a date or probability.

Access to Space

cost, safety, rescue posture, vehicle cadence, and destination availability

Open pathway

Living in Orbit

station financing, life-support reliability, customer demand, debris, and emergency evacuation

Open pathway

The Moon

reliable landing, cargo cadence, long-duration power, dust, radiation, life support, and rescue

Open pathway

Mars

heavy cargo landing, radiation, transit duration, surface power, return fuel, medical autonomy, and financing

Open pathway

Space Infrastructure

standards, cryogenic storage, demand density, liability, debris, and autonomous operations

Open pathway

Off-World Industry

valuable products, quality control, robotic reliability, power, legal rights, and demand

Open pathway

Power & Compute

heat rejection, radiation, launch/assembly cost, maintenance, power-beaming economics, ground infrastructure, and debris

Open pathway

Planetary Defense

early detection, dark objects, long-period comets, composition uncertainty, launch readiness, authority, and funding

Open pathway

Beyond

propulsion energy, travel time, power, communications, autonomy, hardware longevity, and institutional continuity

Open pathway